Nigeria is facing a double-barreled economic crisis as Brent crude prices plunge to $59.25 per barrel, well below the 2025 budget benchmark of $75.
The new development is capable of throwing the nation’s revenue projections and exchange rate stability into disarray.
With crude production lagging at just 1.67 million barrels/day (vs. budgeted 2.06 million) and the naira weakening past N1,600/$, Nigeria could lose as much as N19.6 trillion in projected oil revenue, according to Nairametrics estimates.
The fiscal deficit may balloon from N13 trillion to a staggering N30.79 trillion.
Analysts warn that sustained low oil prices could trigger renewed FX market pressure, straining the Central Bank’s ability to defend the naira.
Recent gains in net FX inflow ($15.2 billion in Q1) may not hold if oil receipts continue to slide.
OPEC+’s plan to reintroduce 2.2 million bpd by October—spearheaded by Saudi Arabia and Russia—further threatens to depress prices. Nigeria, grappling with oil theft and infrastructure decay, remains sidelined from cartel gains.
Finance Minister Wale Edun confirmed that a high-level EMT subcommittee is already working on revised fiscal models, with focus areas including boosting oil output, digitizing revenue collection, and broadening the tax base.