Germans will begin voting on Sunday in a pivotal national election following an intense campaign dominated by economic concerns and growing fears over security and migration. The results will shape not only Germany’s domestic policies but also its role on the global stage, with implications for Europe and the United States.
Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), is widely expected to become Germany’s next chancellor. He has promised to tackle the country’s economic slowdown and aging infrastructure within four years—a bold claim given the challenges facing Europe’s largest economy.
However, a CDU victory would require coalition-building, as no single party is projected to win an outright majority. The most likely partner would be the Social Democrats (SPD) of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government collapsed late last year.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to make historic gains, with polls suggesting it could become the second-largest political force, surpassing the SPD. This rise has fueled intense debate over whether Germany’s mainstream parties should maintain their “firewall” against working with the AfD.
Merz has repeatedly ruled out a coalition with the AfD, despite accusations of breaking the political taboo last month when his party accepted their support in a parliamentary vote. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has capitalized on growing public frustration, particularly on migration, security, and the economy. One of her campaign videos on TikTok has attracted over four million views, showing the party’s growing appeal among younger voters.
In the wake of five deadly attacks since May—three occurring during the election campaign—immigration has remained at the forefront of voter concerns.
The latest attack, a stabbing at Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial on Friday night, has kept security fears in the headlines. The suspect, a Syrian immigrant, was reportedly motivated by antisemitism, further fueling AfD’s anti-migration rhetoric.
The AfD has pushed a controversial “remigration” policy, advocating for the deportation of migrants who commit crimes. Critics warn that the term has broader implications, raising concerns about potential mass deportations. Despite these concerns, the party has made significant inroads in western Germany’s former industrial strongholds, where economic hardship and job losses have created fertile ground for its message.
With 59.2 million eligible voters, the outcome remains uncertain, as up to 20% of voters were reportedly undecided heading into election day. Polling stations opened at 08:00 (07:00 GMT) and will close at 18:00, with early results expected in the evening.
Germany’s next government will face tough economic and geopolitical decisions. As Ukraine’s second-largest military aid provider, Berlin is under pressure to maintain its commitment to Kyiv while managing strained relations with the US. The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House has raised further questions about the future of European security and transatlantic ties.
Meanwhile, German political leaders have expressed alarm over US Vice President JD Vance’s recent meeting with Alice Weidel, which challenged the long-standing political isolation of the far right. This shift has emboldened the AfD’s calls for breaking Germany’s political firewall.
As Germany heads into a night of vote counting, the outcome could mark a turning point for Europe’s largest economy.
