Chatham House, a British international policy think-tank, has predicted that the newly-inaugurated United States President, Donald Trump, may likely sideline Africa as a continent and choose to strike bilateral deals with selected countries on more transactional bases.
In a treatise titled: “Africa in 2025: Economic Growth Despite Persistent Problems”, written by its Research Director, Africa Programme, Dr Alex Vines, the organisation argued that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants African nations duty-free access to the US market for specific products, currently faces uncertainty.
However, it said that although the AGOA deal may be renewed this year, yet under Trump, it will be in a more transactional form, potentially narrowing tariff-free access.
“Following the inauguration of Trump as US president on 20 January, expectations point to selective US engagement in Africa. The Trump administration could prioritise US strategic interests, potentially sidelining African economic development, with a greater emphasis on bilateral deals.
“Trump has also threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS members – which now includes Egypt and Ethiopia, in addition to South Africa – if the group pushes forward with the proposal to create a rival currency to the US dollar.
“The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants African nations duty-free access to the US market for specific products, faces uncertainty but is likely to be renewed this year in a more transactional form, potentially narrowing tariff-free access,” the group projected.
In addition, Chatham House maintained that this could become more sharply aligned with US geopolitical interests, particularly in countering China’s influence in Africa.
Competition with, and containment of, China, the report said, will remain a key priority for Washington. But Beijing’s reduction of its financial commitments to Africa, it argued, has led many African countries to seek new or renewed partnerships elsewhere.
According to the think-tank, Beijing’s reduction of its financial commitments to Africa has led many African countries to seek new or renewed partnerships elsewhere.
This year, it said, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are set to become significant investors in Africa’s mining sector, while Türkiye, and other Gulf States, are also showing greater appetite to widen their African involvement.
If the Ukraine war subsides, the report stressed that Russia might also aggressively pursue new defence and trade opportunities across Africa.
“As part of its broader strategy on the continent, Russia is expected to host its next Africa summit next year, and Equatorial Guinea has offered to host the event. Meanwhile, the UK has announced that it is developing a new approach to Africa.
“France, having withdrawn all its troops from Chad by 31 December, will pull most of its military deployments in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal this year,” Chatham House predicted.
