Controversial former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, says the relationship between President Bola Tinubu and the north has deteriorated less than two years into his administration, warning that he may be given the Goodluck Jonathan treatment ahead of the 2027 elections.
El-Rufai made the statement in a post on his verified X handle on Tuesday, titled, “2027: South West, Tinubu’s supporters playing with fire – Part 1.”
The former governor’s comments came as National Chairman of All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, on Tuesday urged northerners nursing presidential ambition in 2027 to bury the idea, insisting that Tinubu would serve his statutory two terms.
Ganduje made the call in Abuja while playing host to members of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Media Centre (PBAT Media Centre) and Tinubu Northern Youth Forum (TNYF) at the APC national secretariat.
He pledged that Tinubu would respect the North-South zoning arrangement, an unwritten political creed that has influenced the choice of the country’s presidents since the Fourth Republic.
El-Rufai had been attacking the ruling APC and the policies of the Tinubu government, even as political gladiators across party lines continued to mull the idea of floating a coalition capable of defeating APC.
In the post on X, El-Rufai stated, “It is actually premature to be talking about 2027 elections less than two years into our first tenure, but what is happening in the political arena is forcing me to speak to it, for as they say, ‘a stitch in time saves nine’.
“As an APC member, I naturally would want my party to win re-election in 2027. However, as a realist, I have my concerns.”
El-Rufai recalled that during the 2019 party primaries, he saw the way APC handled the primaries, and wrote that if the party was not careful, it could go the way of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which lost power after 16 years.
He said he predicted then that if APC did not return to its promised progressive path and ideology, but stayed obsessed with just winning elections at all cost, just like PDP, the ruling party could lose power at the federal level by 2031.
El-Rufai said, “When I wrote that, we were not faced with the current situation we are faced with. Indeed, I never imagined that we would be in the current situation any time soon, surely not under President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
“Note, I am not talking about the present economic situation and the likes. I am talking about the current and increasing ‘ghaghagha’ in our party and among APC members and supporters of the PBAT administration.”
He added, “Incidentally, many Nigerians have a short memory. Permit me to juggle the memories of some short memories and uninitiated political neophytes.
“Many will recall that, as we approached the 2023 presidential election, with the conduct of some individuals, I desperately cautioned that we should be careful and not play with the north.
“Somehow, common sense prevailed, and we succeeded, unarguably and undeniably with the unquantifiable help of the north (the records of the election results prove so).
“Less than two years into the tenure, we are witnesses to how the relationship between the north and President Bola Tinubu or rather his administration is quickly deteriorating, driven by the words and conduct of, unfortunately, many from the president’s geopolitical zone and tribe. Truth be told.
“I have read and heard the arrogant posturing and braggadocio by some people whom I refer to as political rabble-rousers, but I get more worried each day as it keeps looking more and more like a movie we had seen before.
“May I remind some persons that, more than the performance or lack thereof of the President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan administration, it was his attitude, and that of people around him, towards the north that ultimately brought him down and, by extension, the PDP that had boasted that it would rule Nigeria for 60 years.”
El-Rufai added that in the lead up to the 2015 presidential election, in spite of the popularity of General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) and the gathering of political heavyweights under the umbrella of the then newly formed APC, one key factor that cost Jonathan and PDP the election was underestimating the north and the disrespect and insult directed towards to the north.
He claimed the miscalculation was led by the then first lady, and accentuated by elements from the South-south geopolitical zone, particularly, Jonathan’s Ijaw kinsmen, many of whom had little or no political weight and were “living full time in NICON and Sheraton hotels Abuja, then (with newly found free money).”
Curiously, El-Rufai said, many of those individuals contributed little or nothing to Jonathan’s victory in 2011.
El-Rufai emphasised that many of those individuals forgot that it was the agitation by groups, like the Save Nigeria Group (SNG), spearheaded by the likes of Pastor Tunde Bakare, himself, Mr. Yinka Odumakin (of blessed memory), and co, that led to then Vice President Jonathan becoming the acting president, in the first place, following the incapacitation of former President Umaru Yar’adua.
El-Rufai stated, “Driven by ego and the arrogance of power, these South-south and PDP elements increasingly and, I dare add, naively went against the north, where the PDP still had considerable influence and support then, in the most condescending manner and in so doing gradually lost the support of the north to the advantage of Buhari and the APC coalition. The rest, as they say, is history.
“Today, as I look at the rambunctiousness of some APC members and fellow supporters of President Bola Tinubu, especially from the South-west geopolitical zone, I wonder if people have any sense of history and if they truly understand Nigerian politics.
“I read some people say that President Tinubu is not former President Jonathan, Jagaban is a political juggernaut and master strategist, etc. All that I totally agree with. No question whatsoever. However, politics is not a one champion show.
“While former President Goodluck Jonathan lacked equivalent political gravitas and sophistication (with all due respect to him) as PBAT, he had the then formidable PDP behemoth, which could have actually seen him through, but for the grievous ‘political mistake’ of messing with the north.
“Love or loathe that fact, the north remains the kingmaker in Nigerian politics, at least, as of today. Any politician or political party that plays with that reality might pay a steep political price for it.”
El-Rufai stressed that people, who ignored history were bound to fall victim and repeat mistakes of the past.
He said, “I just want to prod our political senses, in case some of us are forgetting, in the euphoria of tribal and geopolitical politics. I hope better sense will prevail and soon, too. It is whom you love that you chastise.
“In all, I continue to wish PBAT and my party, the APC, well. With almost exactly two years to the month, to the 2027 general election, let’s focus and continue to deliver the promised dividends of democracy to Nigerians.”
In another development, responding to a post by @IU_Wakilii on X, who alleged that there was a plan to arrest El-Rufai if he came back to Nigeria with concocted allegations, as usual, the former governor said he would not go on exile because of any alleged plot to arrest him.
He stated, “Your post below refers. I have been hearing these same rumours of arrest, detention and torture in some dungeon in the NSA’s office (where Emefiele was allegedly tortured to resign as CBN governor), since July 2024, when the so-called report of the Kaduna Assembly began circulating.
“They freaked out when we challenged the legality of the premeditated defamation, and went to every length to compromise the judicial process, and this is continuing at the Court of Appeal.
“They have sent such similar messages of intimidation and threats through many of my friends, family and political associates because they want me to go on self-imposed exile. I will not.
“I have now put all my previous academic and language-learning plans on hold and will spend more time in Nigeria than ever before. Silence is no longer golden. Inaction has never been an option.”
El-Rufai added that the arrest, detention and torture of perceived political enemies were nothing new in human affairs, saying he has been arrested and detained thrice in the past for expressing his views about previous governments.
Stressing that there was always a morning after the arrest, detention, or torture, and political life, he added, “As for death, it will when Allah destines it, and it is ultimate, the date of every human.
“For the attention of the pathetic characters that don’t sleep well whenever I am in Nigeria, take notice that I intend to return in time for the launch of President IBB’s memoirs, Insha Allah, scheduled for 20th February.
“We depend on no one but Allah. We fear no mortal but Almighty Allah. We always hope for the best but plan for the worst.”
Meanwhile, Ganduje urged northerners to shelve all presidential ambitions ahead of 2027, saying Tinubu would serve his constitutionally allowed two terms.
Ganduje made the call in Abuja when he hosted members of PBAT Media Centre and TNYF.
He stated that APC would religiously follow the zoning policy by ensuring that “the north-south sharing formula is strictly adhered to”.
Ganduje stated, “When a leader from the northern part of this country was in office for eight years, we advocated that the next president in our party should come from the south.
“And, luckily enough, we worked very hard with the cooperation of Nigerians. Our president has come from the south and is going, inshallah, for a second term, 2027. And then after that, it will be turned to the northern part of this country.”
Ganduje acknowledged that the country had faced challenges, but he attributed the situation to long-standing issues that required bold corrective measures.
“There is no doubt that many things went wrong over a long period of time, and it requires surgery before we can get it right,” he said.
The APC national chairman expressed confidence in Tinubu’s policies, adding that the country is already seeing positive results, particularly, in the economy.
He stated, “We are happy that we have started seeing the outcome of the reforms, especially on the economic front, and we believe this will continue to yield positive results so that the legacy and the Renewed Hope Agenda will be achieved.”
Earlier, the leader of PBAT Media Centre and Special Assistant to the President on Social Media, Olusegun Dada, said members of the centre were set to correct all the wrong information being peddled about the present administration.
Dada assured the APC leadership of their readiness to give adequate publicity to the 2027 campaign of the present administration.
On his part, the national coordinator of TNYF, Auwal Ibrahim, assured that his group had perfected plans to deliver five million votes for the president in the 2027 election.
