The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), a Nigerian policy think-tank, on Sunday, argued that there was enough evidence to show that the economic policies embarked upon by President Bola Tinubu were on course to transforming Nigeria.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Niyi Akinsiju, IMPI explained that it came to that conclusion after a fundamental analysis of the emerging pattern of the economy since the introduction of the Tinubu reforms 19 months ago.
According to the policy think tank, the optimistic outlook transcends the oil and non-oil sectors in spite of initial hitches, adding that in 2024 government efforts yielded notable improvements in output in the oil sector.
It listed the local refining of petroleum and the complete deregulation of the downstream sector, approval of five oil asset sales and two Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2024 as factors eliciting positive feelings from foreign investors willing to do business in Nigeria’s energy sector.
“In 2025, oil sector analysts project that production will likely average 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) and close the year at 1.78 million bpd.
This excludes condensates that do not fall within the purview of OPEC’s basket of crude.
“This optimistic outlook is underpinned by measures to address oil theft, including the implementation of the Advance Cargo Declaration regime by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This initiative ensures that all exported crude oil and gas cargoes are uniquely identified, verifying the legitimacy of export documentation and reducing the theft of resources.
“Additionally, the NNPC plans to replace aging crude oil pipelines, some of which have been in use for over four decades to support output and operational efficiency further.
“To enhance crude oil production, President Tinubu signed three executive orders in February 2024 aimed at improving the investment climate and positioning Nigeria as the preferred investment destination for the petroleum sector in Africa.
“One of the executive orders legally mandates that the contracting cycle be compressed to a maximum of six months in alignment with global industry standards.
This significantly reduces delays that historically took up to two years or more, thus improving Nigeria’s competitiveness.
“The executive order also mandates the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) to implement a single-level approval process for requalification, technical, commercial, and final stages and ensures that approval is issued within 15 days,” it said.
This, according to IMPI, is expected to eliminate redundant multi-stage approvals and ensure that regulatory approvals are obtained more efficiently, fostering timely project execution, and reducing compliance costs.
It said the plan to hold a fresh oil licensing round in 2025 is focused primarily on handing out oil blocks that remained undeveloped, another fillip in the efforts to hike crude oil production and raise crude reserves and production.
“Aggregating policies and implementation templates and other federal government’s efforts in the sector, the federal government will accomplish its target to increase crude oil production to 2.06 barrels per day as proposed in the federal budget 2025,” it stressed.
The group admitted that the naira lost a chunk of its value especially in 2024 when it depreciated by 40.9 per cent before appreciating in December but also pointed at the domino effect in ensuring a trade surplus for the country reflecting a strong contribution of the non oil sector for the first time in recent years.
CBN data for October 2024, it opined, highlighted a positive trade performance driven by more substantial export earnings than imports.
This, it maintained, reflected a third consecutive quarter of trade surplus in 2024.
“The trade surplus expanded to $2.21 billion, up from $2.07 billion in September.
This improvement was fueled by a 3.51 per cent rise in total exports, which increased to $5.02 billion from $4.85 billion the previous month.
“Export growth was attributed to higher values in crude oil and non-oil products.
Though crude oil and gas exports continued to dominate Nigeria’s export landscape, accounting for 87.74 per cent of total exports, the non-oil exports recorded impressive growth, increasing by 19.23 per cent to $0.62 billion from $0.52 billion in September,” the think-tank said.
IMPI added that the ongoing rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will further show the resilience of the economy as well as a more diversified and dynamic economic landscape under the current administration.