BREAKING: OPEC Cuts 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Citing US Tariffs, Q1 Data
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast for the first time since December, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the United States.
In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.30 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.28 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 bpd from last month’s figures, a Reuters report said.
The oil cartel also confirmed a reduction in Nigeria’s March crude oil production by 64,000 barrels per day, as communicated directly by the Nigerian authorities, to slump to 1.4 million bpd as against 1.46 million bpd in February, a five-month low.
US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs as well as a plan for higher output by OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, have put downward pressure on oil prices this month and raised concern about economic growth.
In the report, OPEC lowered its world economic growth forecast this year to 3.0 per cent from 3.1 per cent and reduced next year’s to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent.
Also yesterday, Goldman Sachs, for the umpteenth time, reduced its outlook for oil prices for the third time since the start of April, now expecting Brent crude to average $63 this year and $58 in 2026.
The bank also said it sees WTI at an average of $59 per barrel this year, falling to $55 in 2026. The update follows one from April 4, when Goldman slashed its 2025 outlook for Brent and WTI by 5.5 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, to $69 for a barrel of Brent crude and $66 for a barrel of WTI. Then, on April 6, the bank cut its 2026 outlook for the oil benchmarks.
“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman analysts said in their note.
In its latest price update, Goldman predicted weaker-than-expected oil demand growth this year, at a modest 300,000 barrels daily this year. Goldman also revised down its demand forecast for the end of 2026, slashing the figure by 900,000 bpd for the final quarter.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose more than 1 per cent on Monday after US exclusions on some tariffs and Chinese data showing a sharp rebound in crude imports in March, but gains were capped by concerns that the trade war between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.
Brent crude futures rose by 83 cents, or 1.3 per cent, to $65.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 81 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $62.31.
