The cost of petrol in Nigeria could decrease further if crude oil prices continue to decline.
This trend is supported by the relative stability of the naira against the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Recently, oil prices fell by about 2%, reaching their lowest levels in 12 weeks. Brent crude dropped to $71.62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $68.37 per barrel.
These declines come after OPEC+ confirmed it would proceed with its planned oil production increase in April.
In Nigeria, the price of refined petroleum products is largely influenced by the global crude oil market and exchange rates.
Last week, the Dangote Refinery reduced its petrol price from N890 per litre to N825, prompting the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to match this price, leading to what some call a “price war.”
Economist Paul Alaje believes the price reduction is sustainable and suggests that petrol could drop below N700 per litre if market conditions remain favourable.
However, he warns that a global crisis could push crude oil prices back up, which would impact fuel costs.
The president of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, also pointed out that petrol prices will continue to fluctuate based on exchange rates and international crude oil prices.
Despite the current price drop, crude oil prices remain below the $74 per barrel benchmark set in the 2025 Nigerian budget.
For now, lower crude prices mean more affordable fuel for Nigerians.
