The World Bank Group says the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) must sustain efforts to tackle inflation.
Sameer Matta, senior economist for Nigeria at World Bank Group, spoke at the recent launch of the 2025 macroeconomic outlook of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
Nigeria’s inflation rose to 34.8 percent in December — up from 33.6 percent in November.
Speaking during a panel session at the event, Matta said the CBN must focus on taming inflation.
I think what is critical in terms of inflation is to stay the course. I think that the central bank needs to continue to be focused on making sure that inflation is under control,” Matta said.
“Obviously, part of it is related to the supply side. What can be done to improve the yield on the agriculture side? What can be done to improve the link between rural and urban areas?
“There is the question of what can be done on the trade policy side. One would be to increase production locally, but that would take time.
“One of the things that can be done on the trade policy side is to think through which sectors could be targeted to allow some tariffs to be adjusted.”
Matta said the cost of not doing reforms is 2 percent of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) for fuel subsidy and 2 percent of GDP for foreign exchange (FX) subsidy.
“That’s five percent of GDP, and that is extremely high,” he said.
“I would liken these reforms to someone with a hard medical condition who had to make tough choices.
“Let’s not forget that at some point in Nigeria, the debt service to revenue was 100 percent; now, the good news is that we are around 50 percent, and that is a big decline.
“The cost of reforms comes mainly from high inflation, and in the case of Nigeria specifically, food inflation is impacted by FX and the fact that lots of agricultural products are impacted by the price of petrol.
“That means the impact of these reforms is being felt by the most vulnerable.
“It is very important that the government continues on the reforms on social protection but also accelerates the roll-out of these cash transfers. It is more important to finance them over the future.
“It will be very important to continue to encourage the authorities to scale up and accelerate these interventions, which are time-bound and targeted at those who are really impacted and done through a digital way to avoid any potential misuse in the future.”
Also speaking on inflation, Christian Ebeke, Nigeria’s country representative at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reiterated the need for coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities.
He said it is important that efforts to bring inflation down by the fiscal authorities are done in the “context of better coordination”.
“For example, one of the key decisions that took place last year was the commitment by both the central bank and the fiscal authorities to strengthen coordination,” Ebeke said.
“We didn’t see Ways and Means accrue again as we have seen in the past year in Nigeria, and it was welcome.
“This is something that should bring inflation down by tightening financial conditions but also by reducing money in circulation.
“The other important thing for the fiscal authorities to do is to tackle any distribution consequences of the reforms that have been implemented.
“Naira reforms or the completion of the fuel subsidy removal. We know that these key reforms in Nigeria will have redistributive consequences on the most vulnerable, and they may not be able to cope.
“Fiscal authorities have a key role to play because the transmission lag of fiscal policies is shorter compared to monetary policies.
“So, issues of social protection are very important. That is how fiscal policies can complement what the monetary authorities are doing.”
On the ways and means, Ebeke said Nigeria should not have been in that position.
“Cleaning up this big problem is taking time, and the persistent effect of the Ways and Means on inflation and, in general terms, on financial conditions,” he said.
“The CBN is trying to mop up liquidity. Just the practice of having deficit monetisation, as has been practiced in Nigeria for years, is now over.
“Again, big congratulations to both the CBN and the fiscal authorities for curbing that.
“Now, when it comes to the securitisation of these, central banks around the world have a memorandum of understanding with the fiscal authorities on this type of liability management.
“The securitisation has the benefit of spreading out the maturities. Also, this has been done transparently, so this is good.”
According to Ebeke, with the independence and fiscal prudence of the CBN, the country ought not to experience macroeconomic pressure, as well as the effect on the parallel exchange rate and inflation.