As Osun State heads towards the August 15, 2026 governorship election, the battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is becoming one of the most closely watched political contests in the country.
While the election remains too close to call with certainty, a careful assessment of the current political situation gives Governor Ademola Adeleke a slight edge over Oyebamiji.
The contest is increasingly shaping up as a two-horse race, although African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam remains a notable third-force contender.
Why Adeleke May Have the Advantage
One of Adeleke’s biggest strengths is incumbency. The governor is seeking to retain the office and has been campaigning on projects and programmes implemented during his first term.
His campaign has also received political boosts from defections by some former APC figures and associates of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Several former commissioners and aides have reportedly moved towards Adeleke’s camp.
Adeleke has additionally received endorsements from some traditional security outfits and ethnic groups in the state, although such endorsements should not automatically be interpreted as guaranteed votes.
Another important factor is the governor’s political visibility. Having contested and won the governorship previously, Adeleke already has an established electoral structure and name recognition across the state.
Why AMBO Could Still Shock Adeleke
Despite Adeleke’s advantages, Oyebamiji should not be underestimated.
The APC candidate has the backing of the federal ruling party and former Governor Oyetola, while the APC is attempting to regain control of Osun after losing the governorship in 2022. Analysts have described the contest as a critical battle for the APC and a test of its ability to recover political ground in the state.
An earlier opinion poll published in January gave Oyebamiji 52 per cent against Adeleke’s 38 per cent, although that survey is several months old and should not be treated as a current projection of the final result.
The APC has also been working to consolidate its structures across the state and present Oyebamiji as an alternative to the incumbent.
The Major Problem for APC
The biggest concern for Oyebamiji may be internal cohesion.
Reports in recent weeks have highlighted resignations and defections within the Osun APC, with some former party members moving towards Adeleke’s camp.
If the APC fails to unite its grassroots structures before election day completely, Adeleke could benefit significantly.
Prediction
Prediction: Ademola Adeleke is slightly more likely to win the Osun 2026 governorship election.
Ademola Adeleke (Accord): 55%
Bola Oyebamiji (APC): 42%
Najeem Salaam (ADC) and others: 3%
These figures are mere analytical estimates, not opinion polls or official forecasts. The election could still swing towards Oyebamiji if the APC succeeds in consolidating its structures, increasing turnout in its strongholds and converting federal political influence into actual votes.
However, based on incumbency, Adeleke’s existing grassroots structure, recent defections to his camp and the current political momentum, the prediction at this stage is that Adeleke could narrowly retain the Osun Government House.
The outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, party organisation, election-day mobilisation and the actual votes cast and counted on August 15.
Predicted Winner: Ademola Adeleke — Accord Party.
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