With a deficit of over 70,000 votes, will Bello Matawalle, the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate in Zamfara State overturn Governor Dauda Lawal’s electoral victory? Northern Bureau Chief, MUHAMMAD SABIU, examines the strengths and weaknesses of the two contestants, as well as issues that might shape the court ordered re-run.
No one gave it a thought that candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Zamfara State could defeat an incumbent governor, But that was what happened in the March 18, 2023 election that produced Dauda Lawal, a PDP candidate, as winner of the state’s gubernatorial election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to the surprise of many political observers who thought Lawal would not be able to defeat his predecessor, Bello Matawalle, who held the flag of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the poll.
In declaring Dauda as the winner of the election, the INEC’s returning officer for the state, Kassimu Shehu, had said he polled 377,726 votes to defeat Matawalle, who had a total of 311,976 votes.
In his reaction, the defeated APC candidate said he was not going to take legal redress. However, his party insisted on seeking legal redress at the Tribunal. While addressing newsmen shortly after the election, the Director-General of the Bello Matawalle’s Campaign, Senator Abdulaziz Yari, said the party decided to challenge the results of the election in court, because the poll was shrouded with irregularities.
But in its ruling on 18th September 2023, the Zamfara State Election Petitions Tribunal held that the petition submitted against Governor Dauda was devoid of merit. While upholding the governor’s victory, the tribunal awarded the N500,000 fine against the petitioners.
Dissatisfied with the ruling, the APC and Matawalle later appealed and challenged the decision at the Appeal Court, which finally ruled in their favour.
In its ruling last Thursday, the three-member panel of the Appellant court led by Justice Oyebisi Folayemi nullified Governor Lawal’s election and ordered INEC to conduct a fresh election in three local government areas of the state, where elections had not been held previously or where results from various polling units were not counted.
The affected council areas are Maradun, Birnin-Magaji, and Bukkuyum.
The court also held that it was wrong for INEC to rely on information it obtained from its Result Viewing (IReV) portal to collate the final result of the governorship election.
Immediately after the verdict, the state chapter of APC expressed satisfaction with the ruling, expressing confidence that it would retrieve its ‘stolen’ mandate.
In a statement he issued, which was made available to Sunday Tribune, the state publicity secretary of APC, Yusuf Idris Gusau, said: “We are confident that our stolen mandate will soon be returned to us, thereby vindicating our cries that the opposition PDP had during the polls used some misguided trigger-happy security personnel to deny the teeming APC members and supporters from exercising their franchise.
He added that “The ruling was a clear testimony of our strong belief in God’s choice to give power or take it as He wills. We are also appreciative of the judiciary for painstakingly carrying out a job well done.”
However, in his reaction, the state governor, Daudu Lawal, described the ruling as a temporary setback. As contained in a statement by his spokesman, Suleiman Bala, the governor insisted that the election represented the people’s yearnings for change.
He said: “The ruling by the Appeal Court is a temporary setback. However, I remain optimistic that the collective decision of the people will ultimately prevail. We will emerge victorious. Our unwavering determination and steadfast commitment leave no room for doubt or fear. Since then, people have been expressing their views on the ruling.
Also reacting, a member of the PDP, Abba Mohammed, in a post on his Facebook page, said “The judgment on Zamfara is only disruptive. It defies logic and reasoning. If the margin of win by Governor Lawal is 77,944 as against a total of 72,000 PVCs collected in the three Local Government Areas where rerun elections are to be held, there was no justification to have declared the election inconclusive.
“Election can only be declared inconclusive under the Electoral Act when the number of PVCs collected in areas where elections did not hold or were cancelled are more than the margin of a win by a party in an election.
“In this Zamfara case, the number of PVCs collected in the three LGAs, which is 72,000, is less than Governor Lawal’s winning margin of 77,944 votes. What this means is that the APC is already in deficit of 77, 944 votes in the governorship election.
“Assuming without conceding, the appeal court was right in declaring the election as inconclusive and ordering a rerun, how would the outcome of the rerun elections in the said LGAs change the present situation in Zamfara even if the entire 72, 000 voters in the three LGAs, who collected their PVCs turn out and vote APC?
“It cannot cover their deficit of 77,944 votes. This was the type of confusion Adamawa was thrown into in 2019 when the governorship election was declared inconclusive by INEC.
“PDP had won the election with a margin of 32,476 votes against APC. Rerun election was ordered in about 77 polling units where elections did not hold or were canceled across the state with a total number of 40,988 registered voters.
“Out of the 40,988 registered voters, the total PVCs collected was 30,027, which was less than PDP’s margin of 32,476 votes in the election. The rerun election was conducted. APC stayed away because even if the PDP equally stayed away, nothing would have changed its lead in the whole election.
“The decision to declare the Zamfara governorship election inconclusive is bereft of logic and reasoning. The clarity of this issue should be brought out and articulated in the appeal,” the PDP’s member argued.
However, the APC spokesman in the state, Gusau, further boasted that his party would win the rerun because Governor Dauda’s popularity has dwindled in recent times.
“We will cancel the deficit and win. It is not difficult. In Maradun alone, we are going to cancel it and win in the remaining two local government areas,” he said.
Findings by Sunday Tribune revealed that no fewer than 150, 000 voters are expected to cast their votes at the upcoming re-run in the disputed three local government areas.
A source, who speaks under the condition of anonymity, revealed that “About 98,000 voters are expected to cast their votes in Maradun, LGA, while 4,000 votes are expected in Bukkuyum LGA, with about 48,000 votes expected in Birnin Magaji LGA.”
But despite this, observers have cited some issues as likely determinants of the outcome of the polls, one of which they say is the alleged certificate forgery of President Bola Tinubu.
There had been some reports that Governor Dauda was one of the leading voices that asked President Tinubu to resign over the certificate scandal. But the governor had since denied ever lending his voice to the president’s certificate forgery saga. His spokesperson, Suleman Bala Idris, said, “The story was a poor work of fiction by some desperate elements working for the defeated former Zamfara governor. They are trying to incite the president against the governor. This too shall fail like the previous blackmail and machinations.”
But some observers have also cited the governor’s current fight with his predecessor over alleged corruption as another factor. They argued that the governor should have reached out to the former governor for them to reach an understanding, instead of dragging his name in the mud.
Amidst these allegations, Sunday Tribune gathered that the two political gladiators have visited the state capital to begin consultations with their party’s stakeholders, leaders, and members ahead of the rerun.
While Matawalle went to his native town, Maradun, one of the local government areas where the rerun will take place on Sunday, the state governor, it was gathered, visited the state capital on Monday amidst funfair from his party’s supporters.
At separate meetings with their supporters, both men reportedly vowed to win. While condemning the leadership style of the PDP administration in the state, Matawalle was said to have boasted that he was going to reclaim his mandate, because all the good policies he had put in place have been destroyed by the governor.
He alleged that the office of the Ulama, which he established for well-designated purposes, has been turned into the First Lady’s office.
Also, in his remark at the state secretariat of the PDP, Governor Lawal reiterated that the people of the state have placed their trust in his leadership, vowing to work tirelessly to honour that confidence.
He said, “We are not afraid of a re-run. The people of Zamfara have entrusted us with their votes. We are prepared and optimistic; even if the election occurs tomorrow, we are ready to go to Maradun local government. We are fully committed to our rescue mission, and no obstacle can impede our determination and focus.”
From the foregoing, the die has been cast, and the two gladiators armed with their arsenals are ready to slug it out in a matter of days. While Governor Dauda boasts of the incumbency factor, and the influence of a retired General, Matawalle, on the other, apparently commands the federal might and the backing of Senator Abdulaziz Yari. But who will blink first? Only time can tell.
