Shocking! Nigeria Failed to Stop Insurgents from Securing Funds, Arms, and Recruits — Kabiru Adamu Reveals the Truth

Security analyst Dr. Kabiru Adamu has identified a complex mix of external and internal factors behind the resurgence of insurgent attacks in Borno State and other parts of Nigeria, warning that unless there is a coordinated and inclusive national security approach, the crisis may deepen.

Speaking during an interview on ARISE News on Tuesday, domestically, Dr. Adamu blamed the resurgence on divided military focus and evolving insurgent tactics.

“A new theatre of war has opened up, Operation North-West, and the military is now stretched thin across the north-east, Niger Delta, north-central, and even Abuja,” he said. “That divided attention has created operational gaps.”

He explained that insurgent groups are becoming more aggressive to assert their relevance. “They want to show relevance. Attacks on hard targets like military formations give them that,” he said. “Once they succeed in one, they seize weapons and use them for further attacks.”

According to him, the core problem remains unchanged: “We’ve not prevented their ability to generate funding, to acquire weapons and ammunition, to recruit, and to move freely — whether on motorcycles or in vehicles.”

On the failure of Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts, Dr. Adamu said the country has strong legal frameworks — including the National Counterterrorism Strategy (NACTEST), the Policy Framework on Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE), and the Terrorism Prohibition and Prevention Law (2022)— but lamented that none have been fully implemented.

“What we have not done is to implement these instruments fully,” he said. “We have attempted in parts of the north-east, but we’ve not rolled it out nationally.”

He criticised the lack of performance evaluation and timely review. “NACTEST, introduced in 2016, was due for review in five years — it hasn’t happened. The same with PCVE. We need to assess what worked, what didn’t, and improve upon it.”

He stressed the need for public inclusion in the counterterrorism strategy. “Go to any remote market in the country and ask a trader: if she saw a terror group leader, could she recognise them? Could she call security? The answer is no. Even in urban centres, that gap exists.”

Dr. Adamu traced the escalation of insecurity to developments across the Sahel region, particularly in neighbouring countries like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which he said have seen a surge in non-state actors, especially jihadist groups with affiliations to global terror networks like ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

“There are a couple of factors, some of them are internal, while others are external,” he explained.

“Let me start with the external one. Developments in our neighbouring countries, especially in the Sahel region, where we’ve seen an increase in the number of non-state groups, especially the ideological ones that are professing jihadism.”

According to him, these groups are strategically moving southwards toward the Atlantic coast to gain access to ports, with ripple effects already being felt in countries like Benin Republic and Nigeria.

“We’re seeing an increase in attacks in places like Benin Republic. We’re seeing the same thing in parts of Nigeria and several other countries that are closer to the ocean,” he said.

Dr. Adamu further warned of renewed calls to action from global jihadist franchises: “There are two big ones — Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. Groups affiliated with them in Nigeria respond when they make such calls. A video was just released between yesterday and today, urging affiliates to increase attacks.”

He also pointed to a strategic reallocation of military resources in neighbouring Niger as another enabling factor: “The Nigerien government, now under military rule, has withdrawn troops from border areas to protect the capital and vital oil infrastructure, creating vulnerabilities that militants exploit.”

With over 1,600 kilometres of porous borders between Nigeria and its northern neighbours, he noted that the lack of effective border security has worsened the situation.

On the federal government’s plan to establish forest guards, Dr. Adamu commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for fulfilling a campaign promise but warned of critical pitfalls.

“It’s a commendable initiative,” he said. “But there are already several forest security structures — at federal, state, and informal levels like the Hunters Association. Duplication of efforts is a risk.”

He urged the government to audit existing structures, including regional outfits like Amotekun, and clarify whether the forest guards would operate independently or integrate with current frameworks.

He also raised concerns about arming forest guards. “At the moment, the threat elements in our forests have military-grade weapons. If we recruit forest guards, will they also carry such weapons?” he asked.

“We already have too many small arms and light weapons in circulation. We must be careful.”

Instead, he advocated a “take, hold, and rebuild” strategy: “The military should take and clear the forests. Then the forest guards can hold them. But we must also rebuild — introduce economic activities so these places don’t become militant bases again.”

Dr. Adamu added that regional cooperation is vital: “Many of our forests share borders with neighbouring countries. If they don’t act in sync with us, militants will just flee across the border and return after operations.”

On how quickly public inclusion could be incorporated into counterterrorism, he was unequivocal: “We have no choice. It’s an existential challenge. We must take public security more seriously than we do now.”

He welcomed President Tinubu’s recent directive to security agencies to work more closely with governors, citing early signs of improved federal-subnational coordination.

“At the moment, there’s no harmonised strategy,” he warned.

“Some governors are negotiating with insurgents; others are refusing. That disharmony at both federal and subnational levels must be addressed.”

He concluded with a call to action: “We need coordination, cooperation, and collaboration. These are not just buzzwords. If we don’t harmonise and implement our security strategies effectively, we’ll continue to lose ground to insurgents — and the consequences will be grave.”